Heading into the final third of the season, here is a team by team breakdown of the 2014 playoff picture, but first a quick reminder about the playoff format:
The 2014 UFFL playoffs will feature a six-team, double elimination tournament with the two conference victors squaring off in the Fur Bowl. Each conference will have three representatives, with the conference champion (the team with the best conference, not necessarily overall, record) earning a first round bye. The remaining two teams from each conference will be determined by overall record and will play each other in the first round, with the higher seeded team earning home field advantage.
In the Continental Conference, three teams: Fargo, Baltimore, and California have distanced themselves from the pack, each amassing impressive 8-3 records. However, all six teams are still technically alive for the playoffs.
FARGO (4-1, 8-3)
The Axmen currently control their own destiny in the Continental Conference. They are tied for the best conference record with Baltimore, but own the head-to-head advantage after defeating the Ponies earlier in the season. If they win out, they will claim the conference championship in the simplest fashion. A loss to either Baltimore or California would quickly open the door for one of those teams to pass over them in the standings. Even if that were to happen though, we like Fargo's chances of claiming one of the conference's three playoff spots given their impressive overall record so far.
BALTIMORE (4-1, 8-3)
Baltimore is in a similar position as Fargo heading into the final third of the season, in that they control their own destiny. Winning all five of their remaining games would garner them the conference championship since in that scenario they would conclude with one less loss than the Axmen, assuming Baltimore was their only remaining defeat. Regardless of the conference title hunt however, just like Fargo the Ponies are sitting well for the postseason after a strong performance in inter-conference play.
CALIFORNIA (3-2, 8-3)
Like Fargo and Baltimore, California would win the conference championship if they win out, although possibly not as clearly. Since both the Axmen and the Ponies already hold the head-to-head advantage over the Dons, defeating either or both in the second round of conference play would not definitively separate them. Assuming California won out and Baltimore and Fargo each won all of their remaining games, the conference records would be California 8-2 and either Fargo or Baltimore at 8-2 and 7-3, depending on their match up between each other. In that situation, the Dons would benefit from their 5-1 non-conference record however, which would give them a better overall record at 13-3 than the other 8-2 team, which would be 12-4 (regardless of whether it was Fargo or Baltimore). Thus the Dons would be declared the conference champions in that scenario. In any case, like Fargo and Baltimore, California is in good position to make the playoffs based on their overall record.
EASTON (2-3, 6-5)
The Bald Eagles have had a good season so far, but have been at a disadvantage given the strong teams in their conference. Even though they are tied for the 4th best record in the entire league, they have an uphill climb to play themselves into the playoffs. With three conference losses, they would need the teams ahead of them to drop games for them to slide into conference championship talk, but it's not a completely realistic scenario to imagine... Supposing they won out, that would give all three teams ahead of them an additional loss. Those three teams then also have to play each other, resulting in two more guaranteed losses. Depending on who beat who, that means Easton would only need one specific team to lose one additional game for them to take the top spot! It's not likely, but definitely not quite the long shot it might seem to be at first. As for just making the playoffs, if Easton wins out, they would most likely be in (barring a couple of strange tie-breaker scenarios). The Bald Eagles could possibly even suffer a loss or two and still be in the hunt if any of the teams ahead of them drop off significantly, but each loss they suffer here on out will make it that much more difficult.
ABILENE (1-4, 4-7) and GRAND RAPIDS (1-4, 4-7)
I lump the Lancers and the Dragons together because they're both in similar positions. There is a very strange scenario where Grand Rapids could possibly win the conference championship since their lone continental win to date is over Fargo, but it's so unlikely that it's more probable that Mars will spontaneously explode. That said, they say that winning cures all ills, and the postseason dream is still alive for both franchises so long as they find the W column early and often as we run down the home stretch. Either team winning out and garnering a 9-7 overall record would at least get them a shot if the cards fell right.
While the Continental Conference playoff picture is becoming crisper by the day, the United Conference is like a Jackson Pollock painting. For that reason, rather than try to sift through the thousands of possible scenarios for each team, we'll take a look at the broader picture.North Florida currently holds the lead due to their record and head-to-head results, but every team is very much alive (yes, even Chicago) not only for the playoffs, but the conference championship. It's hard to believe, but despite sitting at 2-9 overall, the Outlaws are only 1 game behind the conference lead!!!! That said, in terms of just making the playoffs North Florida, Texas, and New York each hold a distinct advantage for the two at-large spots given their 6-5 overall records. It's fair to say though, that at this point, the United Conference is literally up for grabs, which should make for an extremely exciting end to the regular season!
